Digging this post by Bubba and wanted to respond to some of it.
#1 – Totally agree. More importantly I think for any startup, unless you find some biz model I don’t know about, there is no point developing for old phone ecosystems. They are dead. Please also add Rim to that list – if you think they are coming back you are in denial. Also the old Nokia ecosystem is also dead.
#2 – Is interesting. I tend to group them together but that might change down the road.
#3 – Very true but all depends on what you are building and how. However all that aside the fragmentation is real and a pain in the ass. It translates to having to have more resources on Android than iOS for a similar app outcome but at the same time the revenue is clearly lower on Android by a large margin.
#4 – True but how does one get around the AppStore in iOS? We all know that users want the buy button in the app and doing anything to get around that brings the Apple wrath. In some sense you can do it all around mobile web but it is more work and less transactions. However at least with the App ecosystems payments are easy and people use them. This is brining the carrier billing costs down – hardly any carrier can look at you with a straight face and ask for more than 30% these days. It is changing fast. I don’t know where real disruption will come from unless people like Google or Apple allow it to enter the ecosystem. I am doubtful.
#5 – I guess if you mean user generated content but I think building for Apps is better than building web for the way I work.
#6 – Don’t know but I think only the power users need it since most peeps are consumers and even struggle at times with the basics. I think we will be in constant evolution and iteration but it might take a new player to disrupt the current UX. iOS 7 is changing some things but they are not rocking the boat much. I personally hope voice gets much more powerful.
#7 – Probably true. I am only working on video ads and even that is a total pain in the ass. huge disruption could be had across all the ad stuff but so far I am not seeing it. Yahoo could do some cool things if they applies it worldwide but I am not holding my breath yet.
#8 – Speaking for my work experience I think people will pay for content if it makes it more convenient, broadly accessible and a great quality experience. We see it happening with Spuul but takes time to evolve it. I think the global payment issues are one of the big stumbling blocks more than user willingness to pay.
#9 – Good point. I think what happens is the big incumbents like to buy the mobile play to take it out or fix their own mobile play. I think this will change at the big guys check their own mobile boxes but it will take time to build something big and standalone.
Great article though and hoping for more from Bubba!